Under Review (2026)
Failure in the Margins: Local Exposure to Non-local Bank Distress
This job market paper examines how local economies are affected by the failure of non-local banks that operate branches in their area. Using FDIC data on US bank failures from 1976-2016, I identify the causal impact on local credit supply and real economic outcomes through the spatial branch network. The analysis reveals that localities with greater exposure to failing banks—measured by the number of affected bank branches—experience significant declines in credit availability and subsequent reductions in employment and firm formation. These effects are concentrated in areas with limited alternative banking options.
Stress Tests on Main Street: Tracing Holding-Company Exposure Through Branch Networks
This paper examines how stress test results for bank holding companies transmit to local economic outcomes through the geographic network of their branches. Using stress test data from the Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program combined with branch-level data, I identify how stress-induced constraints on capital at the holding company level translate into lending contractions at the branch level. I find that branches of banks with poor stress test results reduce lending more aggressively, with effects concentrated in rural areas with fewer alternative banking options.
Consolidation-Driven De-Branching: Overlap Effects in Quasi-Exogenous Bank M&A
This paper studies how bank mergers and acquisitions lead to branch closures in overlapping markets. Using a novel dataset of M&A transactions and branch locations, I exploit the exogenous timing of regulatory approvals for mergers to identify the causal impact on branch consolidation and local lending. I find that acquiring banks systematically close branches of the target bank in markets where the two institutions overlap, reducing local banking competition and affecting credit availability for households and small businesses.