Bank Failures Still Matter (Job Market Paper)
This paper asks whether the real effects of bank failures have diminished in the modern era of deposit insurance, resolution frameworks, and technological substitutes for credit. Using a newly assembled spatially linked dataset of US bank failures (1981–2023), I show that exposed counties experience persistent income losses equivalent to nearly half of annual growth. Identification relies on branch-level exposure, allowing me to isolate plausibly exogenous credit shocks and trace their effects across four decades of regulatory reform.
Bank Stress Tests and Economic Growth (Working Paper)
This paper investigates whether regulatory stress tests hinder or promote local economic growth. By linking stress-tested bank holding companies to their subsidiaries and branch networks, I construct a quasi-random, time-varying measure of county exposure. Results show that stress tests initially boost growth, as banks raise precautionary capital and expand balance sheets, but later dampen growth once compliance becomes more predictable and banks deleverage or shift assets. The paper highlights the dynamic trade-offs inherent in macroprudential regulation.